On August 7, the website of the General Administration of Customs released the import and export data of foreign trade in July. According to customs statistics, in dollar terms, the gross value of our country's import and export in July was 564.66 billion dollars, up 11%. Among them, the export was 332.96 billion US dollars, up by 18%; Imports reached 231.7 billion U.S. dollars, up 2.3%; the trade surplus was US $101.26 billion, up 81.5%.

Western media have widely focused on the strong growth of China's export figures, noting that the 18 % increase in exports is far more than had been expected.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 7^th that Some Western economists interviewed by the newspaper had given a median forecast of 15.6 % for Chinese exports in July. But China's actual export figures were much higher than that, surprising many economists with a strong performance. It also shows that China has effectively eased supply chain problems caused by the epidemic in the first half of the year, with backlogs of orders at ports and factories being dealt with quickly.

The strong performance seems to defy the doom-saying of some economists about China's foreign trade. For more than a year, many experts have argued that China's export boom is "unsustainable." Western demand for Chinese goods has been met, they claim, so China's exports will face a "sharp contraction".

Bloomberg, citing an analysis by Goldman Sachs Group, said China's export growth appears to be mainly driven by automobiles, steel products and textile-related products. For example, auto exports rose to 64% year-on-year from 21.2% in the previous month. By country, China's exports to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the European Union (EU) were the strongest, rising 33.5 % and 23.2 % respectively, while exports to Russia also rose by 22 %.

Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist at asset manager Pinpoint Asset, was quoted as saying that strong export growth would support China's economy through "difficult times", which would also help boost confidence in the currency and stem capital outflows.

Wang Qing, chief macro analyst at Golden Credit Rating, told Securities Daily that "One reason for the high increase in export growth in July is the low base in the same period last year, which pushed up this year's growth in terms of year-on-year." In July, China's exports to the European Union, ASEAN and India were all at a high level year-on-year. In addition, the rising price of export commodities is also an important factor supporting the rapid growth of exports.

At present, China's main export destinations such as the United States and Europe are experiencing high inflation, driving up the prices of China's main export commodities. Trade data in July showed that the growth rate of footwear and steel exports was significantly higher than the growth rate of export volume. Under the background of rising international oil prices, the export volume of refined oil products dropped significantly year-on-year, while the export volume increased significantly year-on-year.

In terms of imports, import growth picked up slightly in July. Wang Qing believes that this is mainly due to the substantial decline in the import base in the same period last year. The low growth rate of imports is also related to the weak domestic demand for upstream commodities and the recent decline in commodity prices, which have formed a certain restraint on the growth of imports.

But against a backdrop of high global inflation and slowing economic growth, Western media also suspect that soaring prices could lead to shrinking demand in foreign markets, which could slow Chinese exports in the coming months.

According to the Wall Street Journal, rampant inflation in Western countries has taken its toll on spending power. Some big U.S. retailers are struggling to sell clothing, appliances and electronics as persistently high inflation strains consumer budgets, and the backlog could reduce their willingness to keep importing goods to restock.

Xing Ziqiang, Chief China Economist at Morgan Stanley, the US financial services firm, said it was difficult for China to contain the "headwinds" of shrinking global demand. He believed that China's export growth would be likely to slow in the second half of this year.

However, Reuters reported on the 7^th that while demand for orders from factories around the world declined in July, there were some signs that the global transportation and supply chain crisis caused by the coronavirus was easing, just in time for freight forwarders to prepare for the year-end shopping season.

In addition, some analysts noted that China's imports rose by 2.3% in dollar terms in July, which was less than expected and could indicate that domestic demand remains weak.

Source: Guancha.cn